Tag Archives: Analysts

EV Interest on the Rise, But Purchases Coming When Prices Drop, Study Says

2019 Hyundai Kona EV charging

 

Interest in electric vehicle ownership continues to grow, but prospective buyers want prices to drop before they commit to buying one.

While EVs have been in the news a lot lately, consumer concerns about the cost of an initial purchase are a real thing.

Those worries came to light as part of a survey by OC&C Strategy Consultants, Reuters reported. Consumers around the world are much more interested in purchasing EVs than ever before, the study showed, but remain wary about the price of battery-powered cars, which are generally more expensive than their internal combustion engine counterparts.

The report shows that more than half of potential new-car buyers in Italy and France are interested in purchasing an EV. Numbers in the U.K. and the U.S. are even higher — 81% and 61%, respectively.

This problem is nothing new. U.S. News & World Report reported last year EVs are frequently more expensive up front than comparable gas-powered vehicles. “Sticker shock” can turn shoppers away from EVs, especially since initial prices are more widely considered than the overall cost to own.

But concerns about initial cost remain a barrier.

ChargePoint charging outlet

 

Automakers are preparing an overwhelming number of electric vehicles for U.S. consumers.

Of the consumers likely to buy an EV, 69% said they would not pay more than a $500 premium compared to a gasoline-powered car — an unlikely scenario without government subsidies.

Countries with purchase incentives have seen a faster uptick in EV sales and European countries have introduced several generous incentives.

Help might be on the way in the U.S.

President Joe Biden recently unveiled a $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan for the country. Included is a proposed $174 billion to promote U.S. EV manufacturing, sales and the development of infrastructure.

Part of the sales promotion part is to give EV buyers “point of sale” rebates and tax incentives to buy American-made EVs. This reflects the reality that consumers are still worrying about purchase costs.

And OEMs are also aware of the cost problem. One solution is to reduce the cost of EVs, and some are moving in that direction. GM spokesman Phil Lienert said that GM sees a lot of promising technological improvements that will really help reduce EV costs to the consumer.

 

GM showed of its third-generation global electric vehicle platform with its Ultium battery technology.

“Our third-generation EVs will use the Ultium platform,” Lienert said. “This is about 40% less expensive than the Bolt EV platform. We are working to get that number closer to 60% less expensive.”

And as production of EVs ramp up, economies of scale kick in, further reducing EV prices. But despite the dropping costs of batteries and EVs, it is believed that consumers still need incentives to buy more expensive electric cars.

To help with that, Biden plans to extend the current $7,500 federal tax credit, an amount that diminishes for vehicles built by automakers including Tesla and General Motors that already have sold more than 200,000 electric vehicles. Biden could eliminate that 200,000 ceiling as well as enhance incentives for EV buyers in disadvantaged communities.

Incentives matter

“EV buyers love their cars, even there are challenges along the way,” said Joel Levin, executive director of Plug In America, an EV owners advocacy group in February.

2021 Tesla Model Y blue

 

Already the top seller of EVs in the world, Tesla would definitely benefit from the reinstatement of the $7,500 tax credit for buying a battery-powered car.

The phase out of federal tax credits, said Levin. Both Tesla and General Motors no longer can offer the $7,500 incentives after hitting a Congressionally mandated sales threshold. Nissan and Ford are approaching the phase-out point, as well.

“It certainly hurts the market, especially for those who want to buy American,” said Levin.

While the upfront cost of purchasing an EV might be higher than an ICE car, there are other cost factors to consider.

Throughout a vehicle’s lifetime, the cost maintaining the typical vehicle powered by an internal combustion engine will add up to around 6.1 cents per mile, according to research by Consumer Reports. By comparison, BEV owners can expect to spend about 3.1 cents per mile. Surprisingly, the study found that maintaining a plug-in hybrid, such as the Toyota Prius Prime, can be even slightly less expensive, at 3 cents per mile.

“Electric vehicle owners don’t need a coupon to get half-off typical maintenance and repair costs from their dealer, it comes standard,” said Senior Transportation Policy Analyst Chris Harto, author of the study which is based on real-world data from Consumer Reports. “These savings are going a long way to offset the upfront costs for consumers.”

2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E front driving

 

The 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E Premium is part of the wave of new EVs coming available.

Sell the concept, not individual concerns

GM spokesman Stuart Fowle said the company’s goal is to reach beyond early adaptors and tech nerds. To do that GM plans to launch 30 new EV models by 2025.

“I have two children,” Fowle said. “I need a car bigger than a Bolt but I don’t need one as big as a Hummer. Once you get a line-up that matches consumer needs, you can sell EVs.”

But selling EVs is not about going line by line and saying they are cheaper in the long run or easier to maintain or improving range, Fowle said. It’s about getting the public comfortable with the tech.

As more consumers see friends and neighbors drive EVs, a tipping point will be reached where people will feel left out if they don’t buy an EV.

“That day is coming sooner than many people think,” Fowle said.


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Auto Sales Gain Traction as Americans Avoid Mass Transit

Fewer and fewer people are relying on taxis to get them around town due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Taxi business in New York City has dropped by 90% since the start of the pandemic, even as mass transit ridership has fallen precipitously.

The situation, repeated across the country, reflects a variety of factors, including a huge increase among those working from home and a sharp decline in business travel. But even among those who must commute, there’s been a sizable shift away from mass transit and ride-hailing services to the use of personal vehicles. And that is leading not only to a surge in car sales, both new and used, but also in the type of vehicles American motorists are purchasing.

Among new car buyers, in particular, motorists are ordering vehicles loaded with the latest in high-tech features, from smart safety devices to infotainment systems, as well as in-car WiFi and other technology, members of an expert panel agreed during a session at the virtual CES 2021.

(Pandemic may not have changed car buying habits of consumers.)

Workers who had previously taken public transportation are now shifting to driving themselves in large numbers.

“COVID is probably going to change commuting patterns permanently,” said Carla Bailo, the CEO of the Center for Automotive Research, noting research that finds only 20% of Americans expect to go back to their offices full-time, while 90% expect to go to an office less frequently. Americans “won’t revert back,” stressed Bailo, “even when we get through the COVID pandemic.”

It’s not just the way Americans travel for work that’s changing, added Bailo. Though tens of millions wound up traveling during the Christmas and New Year holidays, AAA found a significantly higher percentage took the family car, rather than flying or traveling by train, compared to pre-pandemic holidays.

“We’ll see for some time people reverting back to their cars for social holidays,” said Bailo.

The pandemic has not only made people more reliant on their cars for traveling, but seen people use their vehicles as places to work and even to get a break from family members after extensive isolation, said Christiane Zorn, a senior marketing executive with Audi. And the pattern is playing out in other global markets, as well, she added.

The car, suggested Zorn, is becoming “a personal device,” one increasingly loaded up with even more technology than the typical home or office, echoed Andrew Poliak, an executive with Panasonic Automotive.

Due to the pandemic, travel during the holidays was be down slightly, but most of those trekking to see friends and family were driving.

“We’re coming to this point of convergence,” Poliak said, where many of the things a person could do at home or office can be done in the car. Indeed, he added, it’s becoming increasingly common to have a better audio system in the family vehicle than in the typical living room.

(Auto industry “in much better place,” but price surge likely to continue.)

“Technology will play a big part in the design of the automotive interior in the future,” according to Poliak, and that’s reflected by some of the latest automobiles, such as the Cadillac Escalade, with its 39 inches of video screens. The new Mercedes-Benz EQS due out next year will have a “pillar-to-pillar” Hyperscreen display, the automaker announced during a separate CES event.

Tellingly, when Ford redesigned its F-150 for the 2021 model year it developed a retractable gearshift lever that opens up a large workspace that can be used for a motorist’s laptop computer.

While much of the new wave of technology is designed for passenger comfort and convenience, there’s also been significant growth in the use of advanced driver assistance systems, such as forward collision warning with automatic emergency braking. Some new models offers dozens of these smart safety features.

New and used car sales are on the rise as people move away from public transportation and back into personal vehicles for their commute.

And the first semi-autonomous driving systems, such as Tesla’s Autopilot and General Motors’ Super Cruise, are receiving warm public receptions. Stefan Buerkle, a senior vice president at mega-supplier Robert Bosch, expects to see the growth of auto-parking technologies that could allow a motorist to exit at their destination and then send their vehicle off to find a parking spot on its own. A press of a keyfob or a tap on a smartphone app would summon the vehicle later.

“You won’t have to park your car anymore, or go looking for a spot,” something that adds to urban congestion, said Buerkle. But there’s another advantage, he added. “That will also make much better use of the infrastructure, especially in cities, where space is at a premium.”

Self-parking technology could allow cities to shift to remote parking locations and reduce the need for lots to be set up in dense urban centers, the CES panelists agreed.

While such technology is likely still a few years from production, it will simply add to the trend that has seen new car prices rise rapidly in the last several years. At a separate conference last week, analysts from Cox Automotive noted that the typical new vehicle sold in the U.S. is now rolling off the dealer lot for a record price of around $40,000.

(Commuting may have changed forever, finds new study.)

But the new technologies showing up in the latest vehicles also seem likely to change the basic business model of the auto industry, Bailo and her fellow panelists said. The push to add 4G and even 5G connectivity will allow automakers to not only sell new vehicles but also develop new revenue streams. That will include providing in-vehicle entertainment and using smartphone-style over-the-air updates to add additional features, said Zorn, much as Tesla plans to do with the next major update of Autopilot.


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